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The past seemed less complicated. The fourth meeting of Scotland and New Zealand. A heaving Murrayfield, a scoreless tie, winter of 1964. Euphoria at full-time. Fans flooding the field to reflect the home team's momentous achievement.

Having beaten three home nations, the All Blacks had at last been stopped in a international match.

A contemporary reporter almost blew a gasket. "An unforgettable sporting spectacle," he announced excitedly with considerable hope. "A match in which Scotland saved the honour of Britain."

Leaving the stadium that evening, home supporters would have had optimism about what was to come. Multiple efforts to defeat the All Blacks and zero victories, but obvious indications that success might be imminent.

Three years later, the All Blacks defeated Scotland. Five years after that, history repeated itself. Three years further on, same story. Five more years went by and, indeed, you know the rest.

Modern Encounters

Twenty games since then later. Twenty consecutive New Zealand victories. Across New Zealand and beyond, from the Southern to Northern Hemisphere - the landscapes have changed but results remain consistent.

During his tenure, Gregor Townsend has broken winless streaks in major European venues, but this is another level. This is 32 games across 120 years. Among rugby's most persistent curses.

Team News

Over the past seasons the landslide 20, 30 and 40-point wins have narrowed to closer margins in 2014, 2017 and 2022, but New Zealand consistently prevail.

Via their excellence, physical dominance, game management, they secure victory.

As match day approaches where positive expectations that some may have held for Scottish success is probably beginning to fade. Optimism meets historical reality.

Missing Players

Recent updates revealed that Fagerson was unavailable. To Scottish ambitions it was a significant setback.

Fagerson hasn't played since April, but he's exceptional and had he been declared fit then the long gap without a game would not have been a massive concern.

During modern rugby early in matches, Fagerson's engine keeps running. Unmatched playing time in the European championship.

Replacement Concerns

They're without Huw Jones but Rory Hutchinson is flying form with Northampton. Fagerson's replacement presents concerns. D'Arcy Rae is an admirable tighthead, his international experience consists of limited game time.

Once Rae's shift ends, his replacement takes over. Millar-Mills is a decent prop, evidence is lacking that he's All Black-beating class.

Coaching Choices

Townsend has sprung surprises, partly expected, some curious. Kyle Steyn's game-management intelligence replaces van der Merwe's physical approach.

The back row has no recognisable truffle dog, Rory Darge starting on the bench. There's no Andy Onyeama-Christie in the 23.

Historical Context

Facing the Irish, New Zealand won the first leg of what they hope will be an undefeated tour. They took an age to get going, even when playing against 14 men, but their last-quarter demolition did the trick.

Combined with Irish vulnerabilities, offensive struggles, set-piece issues.

By the Numbers

Despite late-game surges, the final quarter is not where the All Blacks do most of their damage. In all of their Tests recently, they've scored 87 tries in opening periods and fewer after halftime.

They've scored 39 in the first quarter, 48 in the second, 26 in the third and solid finishes. They come exploding out of the traps.

Required Performance

During their last meeting, New Zealand scored early in the initial stages. Leading 14-0, victory seemed assured. Scotland recovered majestically to dominate temporarily.

The clear message is that, figuratively speaking, Scotland must put the boot on the throat from kickoff - and keep it there.

In recent years, successful opponents have required a points average in the high-20s. Scottish scoring only occasionally against New Zealand.

Final Analysis

Everything has to go right for Townsend's team. Everything. Wasted opportunities then hopes fade. A yellow card? A high penalty count? Set-piece struggles? It's over.

With perfect execution? Explosive start. Vocal support. Bedlam. Clinical finishing. Finn Russell's magic. Graham being Graham.

Fantasy rugby, perhaps. Consistent performance has been elusive from Scotland that would be good enough to beat the All Blacks. If it's in there, now is the moment; a century is sufficient.